October is getting toward the end of hurricane season. I've taken Caribbean cruises in October and vacationed in the Caribbean in October. In both instances, I had pretty good weather.

On my cruise on HAL's Eurodam, we had rainy weather for our first day at sea and spotty rain during the afternoon of our day at Half Moon Cay (though the rest of the day was great).

When I did an island-based vacation, I had absolutely wonderful weather the whole trip.

What does this mean? It means that weather in tropical areas is always changeable and can't be predicted this far in advance. Weather forecasts during the breadth of hurricane season usually show rain every day ... most often in the late afternoon. It generally passes quickly.

I've seen more steady rain during trips to the Caribbean in January and March than in October. But that's just my luck. It may not be yours.

Hurricanes in October are rare, but when they occur can be really deadly. The hurricane forecast will be released soon, and we'll get a better sense of whether the weather service sees a worse than normal season or not. It's generally safer to go further south in the Caribbean to avoid more storms, but hurricanes have hit Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, though not as frequently as other islands.