Weather forecast are really only accurate for 2 days at most. Anything else is just looking at the scientific prediction of the National Weather Service that all sources use, and going with the odds . Even if it says 60% chance of snow, it might not snow, right?
I usually look at local forecasts when I travel since I feel that the meteorologists have a slightly better idea of how a specific weather pattern tends to affect a certain area.
Try NY1.com or 1010wins.com , the local all news TV and radio stations.

It's February in NYC. Cold one day, very cold the next, snow that sticks a little in some places and melts in others. Most of Manhattan gets very little of these snows and it melts quickly.
You definitely need warm gloves and warm waterproof shoes, You'll be walking alot and the sidewalks feel cold even when not covered with snow. Gloves are available everywhere including street vendors. Boots will be harder to find this late in the season so don't count on getting the style/size/price you want.

Medium to warm layers, maybe a fleece and a jacket. Good advice from nyer on boots. If you have time to find SmartWool socks, that would help.

I find Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) to be more accurate than weather.com (my wife and I do a daily comparison with lots of "nya nya nya".

That said, 1010wins is that local standard for weather and traffic in NYC.

Sorry - a fleece is useless. This is winter. You need a winter coat, hat gloves, scarf and booties/shoes that are waterproof and have non-skid soles. If yuo try to use a couple of thin layers you will be freezing.

Remember that NYC tends to be damp and also windy - so 30s during the day will feel cold - but by night it can be 20s and windy - so bitter cold. (Today's high in the low 40s, but windy and the low tonight is 23 - so you need real winter clothing)

There is no reason not to go out unless we get a blizzard (not in the forecast) but you do need to be prepared for ice, sleet and snow - and will be fine outdoors as long as you are properly dressed. Make sure you have long-sleeve tops, nice warm sweaters and warm pants (cords or substantial jeans) if you're going to be walking around all day.

Sorry - don;t mean to be discouraging - but when you are used to temps that are always hot - you can feel winter more than people who are used to it. (We had a niece from FL who came to visit and was constantly asking us to turn up the heat - in Oct, when we don;t have heat. She was putting on sweaters as soon as it hit 70, when everyone here was wearing tee shirts.)

I'm still seeing cold-weather gear in stores, but the choices are somewhat limited. Right after Christmas, the stores like Gap started to clear out scarves and gloves; you'll find them, but they may not be the color or style you like. Hats are always available. Coats are on sale, and you'll still find lots of choices at places like Macy's, but some sizes may be out of stock in various varieties.

In terms of forecasts, I like Accuweather.com, which is the same service used by a couple of the NYC news stations. Weather in February varies, but it's rarely warmer than the 40s during the day and is often in the 20s at night. We're supposed to get a LOT of snow on Friday now, so your flight could be delayed or cancelled if you are flying in that day. Most of the weather forecasters say the immediate weather is changing right now and could be better or worse. We'll know more tomorrow. But snow in most of Manhattan business areas (as opposed to residential areas) is cleared away within 24 to 48 hours regardless of how much there is.

By the way people here wear Uggs in the snow. I think they'd get wet, but I see them everywhere. You will definitely need something better than sneakers. If we get a foot of snow on Friday, then there will be puddles of icy water and slush everywhere.

nytraveler - a fleece is not useless as a layer under a coat.

A fleece or sweater under a winter coat would be fine. But not just a light jacket that someone from NO would own.

WorldGallery may end up seeing more snow than ever anticipated. Our forecasts now call for a rain/snow mix from Thursday through Friday morning, and then between 3 and 30 inches of snow, starting late Friday night. So bundle up. This could actually be fun if you've never been around so much snow. If it's a real blizzard (and that's anyone's guess at this point ... only the "European Model" that forecast Sandy shows a blizzard), then the city will be virtually shut down on Saturday. I'd recommend doing that cold-weather shopping on Friday afternoon.

By the way, here's the amusing post on the New York Magazine web site that covers the wildly varying predictions: http://tinyurl.com/bzx3fee

Wow! Thanks everyone. I guess I will keep watching the forecasts on the local links sent. I like local forecasts much better. It would be fun. My kids have only been in snow once where it exactly stuck to the ground. All along my plan was to take them to Central Park to sled on the hills if it did snow. Does anyone have any info on this? Can inexpensive sleds be purchased around the city? I am completely new to this and never owned a sled.
I guess I better hold off on booking the food tour and 9/11 Memorial. We leave Feb. 16th night so hopefully we can get some outdoor things in.

In NYC it's going to be difficult to find any kind of real sled, but you can probably find some kind of plastic lid or something at a hardware store that the kids can use (though they should be careful). We do have a Home Depot quite accessible to the subway by Bloomingdale's, and there are a lot of local hardware stores near the park on the Upper West Side.

OK -

So the latest is that the blizzard will be in New England and of course N and W or NY (as always the Poconos get the snow)

They are calling for 3 to 6 inches in NYC. Enough to slow travel at the airports and make the street messy but not enough to make anything difficult. With that amount sidewalks will easily be cleared by Sat am although it might be fun in the park. And that's not enough to affect either buses or subways.

If by some chance we get what they are talking about for New England - a couple of feet - things start to become problematic outside Manhattan - since it takes snow plows time to get to all of the streets in the outer boroughs - although major highways are cleared quickly.

Definitely be sure you have waterproof boots with non-skid soles - slush can collect at the corners and be 4 or 5" deep.

Thanks for this info. We just changed our flights! I called the airline and they had just issued a bulletin allowing flight changes without fees and I got the last flights. We are now flying out tomorrow at 5:30PM so we get in NYC at 9:30PM.
Please keep me posted on the weather if something strange happens or the weather speeds up.

Was checking the weather updates - and glad you did too NYTraveler. My wife left this am for DC (she just bought a big winter coat on sale - not much use for them here in SD )- and there is the possibility of a big blizzard blowing into the Northeast - and time will tell how far south it roars. No matter what the weather reports say - they are just a SWAG. (Scientific Will Arse Guess).

Aside from having good boots/footwear - layering is really the key - assuming you don't have a huge overcoat/parka, and also - have something in the mix to cut the wind. If you can find some ski stuff on sale - that would work. Put on some good "long johns" - long underwear - now being popularized by the Underarmour brands, et al - and then layer a windbreaker over a sweater, etc.

And dont forget something for the head. You lose 70% of your body heat through your ole noggin.

Oops - forgot - gloves for the hands and you should be toasty warm. Actually - you can buy temporary/disposable hand warmers from the ski/sporting good stores - that you can "pop"/activate - and put in your pockets and they are good for an hour or two? You ladies usually love them.

BTW - once your kid learn how to make and throw snowballs - it's a different world.

New news - it appears that the storm will be stronger and probably farther south than anticipated.

They are now calling for up to a foot of snow in NYC - which might well delay your flight (and will mean you MUST have boots and winter clothing - including a scarf to wrap around your nose and mouth to warm the air before you breather it).

Don;t worry about 12" in Manhattan - we have hundreds of plows to keep main streets clear and subways/buses will still run - but without snow boots you will have real trouble getting around the streets.

nytraveler, WorldGallery noted yesterday that he/she changed the flight to today and is probably safely en route here now.