spassvogel

This is what FOOTSTEPS in AFRICA estimates:



The 2010 Okavango Delta Flood

Early indications are clearly pointing to a massive flood in the Okavango Delta, the likes we have not seen for almost 25 years. Last year's flood caught many off guard. You may recall that Footsteps in Africa did indeed predict a large flood, affecting several areas. Despite many “experts” and “locals” writing to the contrary assuring guests and the trade that the 2009 flood was not so bad and that matters where under control - it would later emerge that some were less prepared than they should have been.

We are basing our predictions on four elements:

Water levels in the Okavango Delta are already high for this time of year

This seasons rainfall in the Okavango Delta is above average

Rainfall in the main catchment area in Angola is above average

The measured water flow at Mhembo is also above average
Feel free to ask us for flood updates as we will be monitoring this flood closely until August. We will be in a position to tweak your bookings to derive the maximum benefit from our local knowledge.

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SV

Elizabeth_S

Yikes - we're going to be in Caprivi and Chobe in 7 days - hope we don't have a problem - assume major implications will be felt later

contem

Any updates?

skimmer2

Some people will be in for a surprise. A lot of airstrips are going to be flooded, roads to drive on will be seriously restricted in certain areas. Picking out the right places will be more important than ever.

As long as Southern Africa is going through a wetter cycle, the gameviewing in northern Botswana will be below average in high season compared to drier years.

Erratic rainfall, like experienced in June 2009, can also have a major impact as pans which dried up, are filled again.

I wouldn't want to go to f.e. Mapula and Duba Plains at the height of the floods.

Johan

KissyPants

Which specific camps (WS and other operators) in Northern Bots would the experts recommend for those of us that have already booked trips and are definitely going to the Okavango Delta late May-early June (and beyond) 2010? For myself, and I suspect others, that was literally the only time of year possible to go, so I'd love to hear suggestions on how to make the experience the best possible, given the flooding conditions. For example, Johan's comment that Mapula and Duba Plains might be best avoided at the height of the flood is great--where else? Where would still be pretty good? Thanks!

skimmer2

If travelling WS, your best bet would be Chitabe & Savuti/Duma Tau.

I would be very reluctant to go this year to all the other areas in Northern Botswana which WS is marketing in May/June. Mombo being the exception if the price was reasonable.

I am not saying you won't have any good sightings at the other places but your chances will be less.

HariS

and here I am planning Little Vumbura????

wildlifepainter

and here I am planning Little Vumbura????

Me too! In fact, I will be there May 28, 29 and 30. Come hell or high water, it will be great!

skimmer2

Little Vumbura will be a hit or miss in terms of predator sightings. I liked it a lot in the past but until drier years, this area is off my list in high season as there is just too much water around.

But maybe you are lucky you never know.

contem

so I am thinking maybe I should try to get my stay at Duba Plains moved to somewhere else? Any suggestions...I am also booked in Kwetsani and Selinda.....how do those properties look?

skimmer2

Contem,

Kwetsani and Selinda will also be very wet.

I would prefer to go to the Linyanti (Duma Tau/Savuti) instead of Selinda as these 2 camps have the better predator sightings at the moment.

The area around Kwetsani is quite beautiful and will give you a good idea how the delta is. Some people have been lucky there with predators in the past but in general it's not an area where you have good sightings on a consistent basis. You are most likely to come across lions if any predators are seen. I visited the concession on several occasions for its birdlife. Unless the focus for your safari is on cats & dogs, I wouldn't change this one.

Duba plains, although one of my absolute favourites, doesn't provide those fantastic lion-buffalo interaction on a constant basis due to the change in pride dynamics. The floods severely restrict your game drives. So I would try to go to Chitabe instead.

Hope this helps.

Johan

lbj2

To put it into perspective, the water levels are already higher than the peak flood last year. This is a combination of high water tables and saturated kalahari sands allowing the water to flow further.

You are going to heavily effected at any camp in the Delta, wildneress or not, unless you are looking for a pure water experience.

As for Selinda and Linyanti camps, the water levels there had already submerged a number of roads in Feb, plus the flowing SAvute channel has really changed the dynamics of that area.

I am guessing that you have paid in full?

Maybe move a portion of your trip to Hwange, WS have an excellent camp called Makalolo.

HariS

No surprises with the high water levels. The rains this year started real early - middle September or thereabouts. It had already been raining for a whole week by the time I got to Bots which was end of Sept. At that time, the Air Bots had an interesting article in their in-flight magazine regarding hypothetical flood levels for the next year ...... the rains in Angola had long started, apparently.

KissyPants

I am scheduled for Savuti and Chitabe (3 nts each) with 2 nts at Xigera at the end of May. Since Xigera is completely a water camp, I was figuring high flood levels this year would not matter too much (lots of water vs. lots and lots of water)--but should I try to get moved elsewhere, maybe to Kwetsani or Tubu Tree rather than Xigera?

skimmer2

No need to move from Xigera to Kwetsani or Tubu Tree. You should be fine.

jweis

The flood is going to be massive - just posted new satellite images and updated as of today.
James

skimmer2

Hi James,

Thanks for the info.

I got the feeling that in the dry season there will be a shift from Botswana to other safari destinations especially if the northern part of the country becomes less and less accessible by vehicles. What's your opinion about it?

Greetz,

Johan

jweis

You may be right Johan --

However, in my estimation a lot of agents will not be adequately informed of the issues involved with a big flood and how and where its impact will be felt, so guests will likely go to these areas anyway.

I think it would take several years or more of this type of flood for "word" to get out to the everyday guest via feedback from prior travelers or from agents becoming wise and "steering" their clients wisely during certain months of the year.

James

skimmer2

James,

Thanks for the answer. You could be right in your assessment that it will take time for certain agents to become informed.

My timing and choice of camps/areas has changed because of the floods. It's not the only criterium but by far the most important one.

Johan

lbj2

The problem that emerges is a number of agents book more on commission that what is happening on the ground.

Hopefully people will start to visit Zim more.

As for Botswana, if you are not a mobile person, the &Beyond product at Savute will deliver one of the best products under the current dynamics.