Hurricane Season's Early this Year
Jul 11th, 2005, 08:09 AM
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Hurricane Season's Early this Year
My husband and I are supposed to leave for Jamaica on thursday July 14, 2005 there is some likelihood that a hurricane will hit during our visit. Should we cancel? How bad is the weather before, during and after a hurricane? Any advise is greatly appreciated.
Jul 11th, 2005, 09:22 AM
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Well emrocks, without sounding trite, it IS the hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occured outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to emcompass over 97% of tropical activity. The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then. Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December.
That's one of the main reasons that summer prices for Caribbean destinations are lower. You get a bargain, but you also take a bit of risk.
How bad is the weather before a hurricane.... Generally tranquil.
How bad is the weather during a hurricane.... DUCK!!!
How bad is the weather after a hurricane.... Clears within a day or two.
The actual hurricane itself will only last 6~8 hours over any given point. A day or two with showers.
Most reputable travel companies and airlines will NOT fly you into a resort when a storm is near to approaching. They generally also evacuate tourists upon a major storms approach.
What can you do? Keep abreast of what is happening at the website of the National Hurricane Center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
If you note, a Tropical Depression is now forming over mid Atlantic. This will become a Tropical Storm later this week, and is forecast to become a Caribbean Hurricane by Friday. It will be fully into the Caribbean basin by week's end. But it's still too early to determine where exactly it will track, nor it's expected final strength. Keep checking the NHC website and keep informed. That's the best advice I can offer.
Steve
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occured outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to emcompass over 97% of tropical activity. The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then. Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December.
That's one of the main reasons that summer prices for Caribbean destinations are lower. You get a bargain, but you also take a bit of risk.
How bad is the weather before a hurricane.... Generally tranquil.
How bad is the weather during a hurricane.... DUCK!!!
How bad is the weather after a hurricane.... Clears within a day or two.
The actual hurricane itself will only last 6~8 hours over any given point. A day or two with showers.
Most reputable travel companies and airlines will NOT fly you into a resort when a storm is near to approaching. They generally also evacuate tourists upon a major storms approach.
What can you do? Keep abreast of what is happening at the website of the National Hurricane Center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
If you note, a Tropical Depression is now forming over mid Atlantic. This will become a Tropical Storm later this week, and is forecast to become a Caribbean Hurricane by Friday. It will be fully into the Caribbean basin by week's end. But it's still too early to determine where exactly it will track, nor it's expected final strength. Keep checking the NHC website and keep informed. That's the best advice I can offer.
Steve
Jul 11th, 2005, 09:49 AM
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Also bear in mind that after the fact, depending upon the intensity of the storm, you could be without power and/or running water for a couple of days. If it's really been bad and tourists are on an island, the government typically calls for a mandatory evacuation of tourists since they don't want more people on the island in the aftermath than they need.
Jul 11th, 2005, 03:57 PM
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As a former TA, I am always mystified by this. When clients would inquire about land or cruises to the caribbean during the rainy/tropical storm/hurricane season, I would explain the unstable weather conditions in this region at that time of year. I would offer alternative destinations, but they insisted. As the vacation approached and the hurricanes started rearing their ugly heads, so did my clients. Does anyone pay attention? There is a reason why it is a lower price during this time. Is the savings really worth it espically for honeymoons?? Is the added stress of weather and if you can actually go worth the few $$ you save? There are so many other great destinations...why the caribbean during hurricane season. Just look at the amount of hurricane related posts....
Anyone?
Anyone?
Jul 11th, 2005, 04:12 PM
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Yes Annabel, mystified is a great word !
I can only imagine your frustration as a TA.
One of my *peeves* here is the weather question. Yup, it rains all over the world and it won't stop raining because someone is vacationing.
There is a thread on the US board arguing whether it's better to live in Florida with the threat of hurricanes, or in California with the threat of earthquakes. It's a long thread ;-) !
Have we all forgotten about Mother Nature ? She rules her way
Marion
I can only imagine your frustration as a TA.
One of my *peeves* here is the weather question. Yup, it rains all over the world and it won't stop raining because someone is vacationing.
There is a thread on the US board arguing whether it's better to live in Florida with the threat of hurricanes, or in California with the threat of earthquakes. It's a long thread ;-) !
Have we all forgotten about Mother Nature ? She rules her way
Marion
Jul 11th, 2005, 05:32 PM
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If folks want to travel to the Caribbean during hurricane season, I say go for it... they do have travel insurance which covers such contingencies. If you have the luxury of cancelling at the last minute, perhaps you should wait and see may 3-4 days beforehand. There's no weather crystal ball, but our modern meteologists have gotten pretty good at spotting and tracking major weather patterns and are able to give people a heads up. If it looks like a pretty bad storm headed towards Jamaica, then cancel. Mind you, storms do weird and surprising things. Predictions have been wildly wrong. Storms go off in unexpected directions, miss predicted targets altogether, etc.
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Jul 11th, 2005, 06:36 PM
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I'm not talking about the people that go to the caribbean during this time and KNOW it's a crap shoot. I'm talking about the people that book vacations, cruises and honeymoons and get paranoid, pissed off, shocked, want their money back, what is going on, what should I do now kind of people.
Would you go to Aspen in July to ski?
or Vermont in January for the foliage how about Washington DC in August for the Cherry Blossoms...I think not. So why go to the caribbean during this season only to spend thousands of your hard earned money and long awaited vacation to sit in rain or worry about a potential hurricane slamming the island? It does not make sense it is a waste of time and money.
Would you go to Aspen in July to ski?
or Vermont in January for the foliage how about Washington DC in August for the Cherry Blossoms...I think not. So why go to the caribbean during this season only to spend thousands of your hard earned money and long awaited vacation to sit in rain or worry about a potential hurricane slamming the island? It does not make sense it is a waste of time and money.
Jul 11th, 2005, 06:37 PM
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I'd suggest checking with the hotel you are staying in. Since Jamacia was hit last week by Hurricane Dennis, my guess is that there is some damage to clean up it was a strong CAT 3 when it went over Jamacia, and there was alot of flooding.
If another storm is heading in that direction, you may have to make alternative plans as the airlines will cancel flights and the hotel will not be able to accomodate your vacation.
HOpe you got insurance for this trip.
If another storm is heading in that direction, you may have to make alternative plans as the airlines will cancel flights and the hotel will not be able to accomodate your vacation.
HOpe you got insurance for this trip.
Jul 11th, 2005, 06:41 PM
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Also, just because a hurricane or TS misses it's "target" does not mean that the weather is wonderful. The water is sloppy and churned up...no snorkeling, it's ususlly raining and very windy, roads are flooded and some islands even loose power. This is without a hurricane hitting an island.
Jul 12th, 2005, 03:12 AM
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There are plenty of reasons to go to the Caribbean during the hurricane season -- after all, the season is 6 months long so it's kind of limiting to consider HALF the year to be off-limits. I've been down island just about every month of the year, and some of the best times have been in the summer. Since I usually take a couple of island trips a year, it's hard not to have one of them in hurricane season unless I crowed the winter calendar. Consider:
- Lower rates -- often better than what you can get by going to your local beaches (which, if you are on the East Coast, are no less likely to be hit by a hurricane than a Caribbean island)
- Less crowded and more laid back
- Weather that is often better than what you have at home in the summer
Sometimes, your risk of travel snafus going to the islands is worse in the winter, where weather can shut down your departure airport and screw up your plans in a big way.
That said, anyone who does go down to the islands in the summer needs to be mindful of the risks. Having been caught in a September hurricane in the islands, September (and August) are now off my list except for last-minute travel -- hurricane season trips are better scheduled for lower probability times (though there are no guarantees). Trip interruption insurance is a given. And total flexibility is key -- should I see my destination threatened, I'm usually ready with a Plan B; for me, it's much harder to arrange time off than it is to arrange a trip to fill that time.
The mystery here is not why people go to the Caribbean during hurricane season; it's why people go during hurricane season without being prepared.
- Lower rates -- often better than what you can get by going to your local beaches (which, if you are on the East Coast, are no less likely to be hit by a hurricane than a Caribbean island)
- Less crowded and more laid back
- Weather that is often better than what you have at home in the summer
Sometimes, your risk of travel snafus going to the islands is worse in the winter, where weather can shut down your departure airport and screw up your plans in a big way.
That said, anyone who does go down to the islands in the summer needs to be mindful of the risks. Having been caught in a September hurricane in the islands, September (and August) are now off my list except for last-minute travel -- hurricane season trips are better scheduled for lower probability times (though there are no guarantees). Trip interruption insurance is a given. And total flexibility is key -- should I see my destination threatened, I'm usually ready with a Plan B; for me, it's much harder to arrange time off than it is to arrange a trip to fill that time.
The mystery here is not why people go to the Caribbean during hurricane season; it's why people go during hurricane season without being prepared.
Jul 12th, 2005, 03:52 AM
#12
emrooks: I agree that it seems that hurricanes are coming earlier and more often. Five years ago, there were hurricanes, but not quite so often as there are today. It seems each year is getting worse.
I would watch and see what the latest storm Emily is doing up until you go. Do you have insurance for your trip? It may go no where near Jamaica.
I can not reassure you for this trip with Emily out there, but I will tell you that from now on, we are all going to have to think before we book anytime in the summer not just late Aug or Sept.
I would watch and see what the latest storm Emily is doing up until you go. Do you have insurance for your trip? It may go no where near Jamaica.
I can not reassure you for this trip with Emily out there, but I will tell you that from now on, we are all going to have to think before we book anytime in the summer not just late Aug or Sept.
