The Most Terrifying Part of Any Flight Is About to Get Worse

We ask experts what we can expect.

The shaking and jerking of the plane at 30,000 feet in the air is the stuff of nightmares. You may feel like the aircraft is falling, but turbulence can’t cause a plane crash. It does lead to injuries though, especially endangering crew members who are often unseated when unexpected turbulence hits. According to data from the Federal Aviation Administration, there were 163 serious injuries reported due to turbulence from 2009-2022. Out of these, 129 injuries were among crew members.

Last month, turbulence struck an eight-hour flight heading to Portugal during meal service. Eight passengers and two crew members were injured. Videos of a Southwest flight from Hawaii and a Lufthansa flight from Texas also went viral as passengers shared harrowing experiences of their bumpy journeys. 

Aircraft are built to ride out turbulence, but these incidents are becoming increasingly common, making for an unpleasant flying experience. There may be a common reason: climate change. 

Turbulence Is Common

The Federal Aviation Administration defines turbulence as air movement that normally cannot be seen and often occurs unexpectedly: “It can be created by many different conditions, including atmospheric pressure, jet streams, air around mountains, cold or warm weather fronts or thunderstorms.” 

It is common for flights to encounter rough air. The intensity ranges. Light turbulence causes a slight change in altitude or attitude but passengers only feel a slight strain; moderate is when you feel strains against seat belts but the aircraft stays in control; severe is when the aircraft momentarily loses control and loose objects (and people) may become projectile; and extreme turbulence makes the aircraft impossible to control and may cause structural damage.

Airlines and pilots take many measures to keep things as smooth as possible by using weather radars, communication from other planes, and real-life visuals of storms and clouds. Pilots may change course to avoid turbulence if they see storms ahead. But there is also clear-air turbulence which isn’t visible or predictable—when a plane hits clear-air turbulence, pilots don’t get a chance to warn passengers to get to their seats and buckle up.

Vertical wind shear is one of the causes of turbulence. It is the difference in wind speed as you go up in the atmosphere. Ned Kleiner, PhD candidate in Atmospheric Science at Harvard University, explains, “If you’ve ever been on a hike and found that it was windier at the top of the mountain than the bottom, then you’ve experienced vertical wind shear.”

Imagine a crowd moving through a field, he says. If everyone moves at the same speed and in the same direction, they won’t collide. But if people on the right speed up suddenly, while the left side slows down, then those in the middle will start bumping into each other. “Similarly, if there is high vertical wind shear, air particles will be bumped by their faster neighbors, and this bumping causes the air to be stirred up which produces turbulence.”

Kleiner says, “Clear-air turbulence tends to be more difficult to avoid because it is invisible to the naked eye and harder to detect with current instrumentation.”

According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), turbulence cost airlines up to $500 million annually due to injuries, delays, aircraft damage, and maintenance. Avoiding turbulence is also expensive because more fuel is burned and more emissions are produced when flights change path or altitude.

Climate Change Will Make Turbulence Worse

Climate change is increasing vertical wind shear, so turbulence is expected to get worse. Midlatitudes (30 and 60 degrees North), which have the busiest flight routes, will be impacted.

Clear-air turbulence will double by 2050, a study by Dr. Paul D. Williams predicts. Dr Williams is a professor at the University of Reading in the U.K. and specializes in turbulence, climate change, and jet streams. He has co-developed an aviation turbulence forecasting algorithm. His research shows that severe turbulence will increase more than light and moderate turbulence, and although effects will be seen globally, the North Atlantic will have a significant increase in severe clear-air turbulence. Since 1979, the vertical wind shear over the North Atlantic has risen 15%. 

NASA also predicts that the shooting temperature will make the air less dense, so planes will have a hard time taking off. Aircraft load will have to be reduced to make the plane light enough to fly.

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This Doesn’t Mean That Flying Is Becoming Dangerous

“Aircraft are more than sufficiently sturdy for the turbulence they face today, and we can make them even more sturdy,” aviation expert Vance Hilderman, CEO of AFuzion, tells us. Aircraft designs are improving continually. The carbon fiber that’s used to build planes is more flexible to survive turbulence; planes have better mechanical systems and sensors to predict and avoid turbulence, as well as compensate for the jerks; and simulator training ensures that pilots are prepared to fly in inclement conditions. More automated bad weather compensation, bad weather avoidance, and better restraining systems are some of the other solutions that the industry is looking at.

However, he adds that most injuries happen because people don’t wear seatbelts. “What you don’t really have to worry about, at least at this point, is turbulence causing an actual crash. Planes are built to stand up to turbulence just fine.”

So, you should do what you can to be safe, and that means trusting the seatbelt. Even if the sign is off, it is recommended to keep your seatbelt fastened when you’re flying to avoid injuries due to unexpected bouts of turbulence. Flight attendants are advocating for a change in policy that allows children under two to sit in the laps of their parents. The FAA also recommends a child restraint system for children on flights, “Your arms aren’t capable of holding your in-lap child securely, especially during unexpected turbulence, which is the number one cause of pediatric injuries on an airplane.” So, it might be a good idea to buy seats for your children and ensure they’re tucked in safely.

What’s New on the Tech Side?

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has introduced Turbulence Aware, a real-time, data exchange platform for the industry that maps turbulence and gives a heads-up to pilots and dispatchers. With multiple data sources, this data is more accurate and can help increase fuel efficiency. Airlines such as Southwest, United, Delta, Qatar, Air France, and Lufthansa have signed up for this service.

Dr. William’s paper also recommends technological solutions. “Future aeronautical advances, such as remote sensing of clear-air turbulence using onboard light detection and ranging technology, might be able to mitigate the operational effects of the worsening atmospheric turbulence.”

Ironically, aviation also contributes to climate change, so it’s part of the problem. The industry accounts for around 2.5% of global CO2 emissions and the U.S. has committed to a net zero emission target by 2050. 

Hence in the coming decades, it’s possible that the aircraft design will change, too. Especially if jet fuel is replaced by liquid nitrogen.

Jenny Kavanagh, Chief Strategy Officer of Cranfield Aerospace Solutions Ltd, says, “Liquid hydrogen cannot be stored in the wings as kerosene is today because it has to be cryogenically stored. That means the fuel will need to be stored in the fuselage (above, below, behind the passengers and/or in front of the passengers). This will inevitably make the aircraft larger and they will look different.” 

Zero and low-emission aircraft are likely to have less range and they may fly slower. “Because of the different operating economics and the infrastructure changes that will need to be made, airlines may need to look at different operating models that may impart a difference in how we fly. We may find more regular services, routes with more changes than before, more regular refueling, etc,” she adds.

A developer of aerospace concepts, Cranfield is building a hydrogen-fuelled aircraft, but it’s not the only one testing the hydrogen waters. Airbus aims to develop a hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft by 2035. EasyJet and Rolls-Royce have also tested an aircraft engine run on hydrogen.

Since hydrogen emits water when burnt, it can help decarbonize air travel. However, it still may be a long road to make it viable for commercial use because of a lack of infrastructure for producing and distributing green hydrogen (that’s not made using carbon-intensive methods). “Availability or lack of availability of clean hydrogen at the right quantity in the right place at the right price in the second half of the decade is a big concern for me,” Guillaume Faury, Chief Executive of Airbus, had warned in November.

But will this innovation in aircraft design and fuel lead to higher fares? It may, until the technology matures and economies of scale reduce costs, Jenny Kavanagh says. But she also notes that conventional fuels will also become more expensive if governments impose carbon taxes or if the fuels become scarce. This will cause conventionally-fuelled airlines to hike prices to recover lost revenue.